[1]周真,李翰斌,齐佳,等. 退化过程建模及药品货架寿命预测[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2019,(01):55-59.[doi:10.15938/j.jhust.2019.01.009]
 ZHOU Zhen,LI Han bin,QI Jia,et al. The Degradation Process Modeling and Shelf Life Prediction of Drug[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2019,(01):55-59.[doi:10.15938/j.jhust.2019.01.009]
点击复制

 退化过程建模及药品货架寿命预测

()
分享到:

《哈尔滨理工大学学报》[ISSN:1007-2683/CN:23-1404/N]

卷:
期数:
2019年01期
页码:
55-59
栏目:
测控技术与通信工程
出版日期:
2019-03-26

文章信息/Info

Title:
 The Degradation Process Modeling and Shelf Life Prediction of Drug

作者:
 周真12李翰斌1齐佳12马德仲12
 (1哈尔滨理工大学 测控技术与通信工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080;
2测控技术与仪器黑龙江省高校重点实验室,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080)
Author(s):
 ZHOU Zhen12LI Hanbin1QI Jia12MA Dezhong12
 (1School of Measurementcontrol Technology and Communications Engineering, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080,China;
2Higher Educational Key Laboratory for Measuring and Control Technology and Instrumentations of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150080, China)
关键词:
 关键词:退化模型货架寿命Bayes理论药品
Keywords:
 Keywords:degradation model shelf life bayesian theory drug
分类号:
TB1143
DOI:
10.15938/j.jhust.2019.01.009
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 摘要:药品货架寿命的有效预测是药品安全管理的关键问题。针对传统的退化过程建模不能考虑同批产品中个体差异的问题,提出一种有效融合先验退化数据和现场退化数据的方法,可对单片药品及新药品进行货架寿命预测。依据先验信息确定模型的参数,引入Bayes融合现场退化数据进行参数更新,在此基础上对单片药品进行货架寿命预测。结果表明,瓶装和片装的五号药片的货架寿命预测值分别为4395周和4747周,与试验值的相对误差分别为0043和0051。验证了利用融合现场退化数据对单片药品及新药品货架寿命预测方法的可行性。
Abstract:
 Abstract:The shelf life prediction of drug is the key problem of drug safety management. To solve the problem of individual difference in the same batch cannot be considered during the traditional degradation process modeling, an effective method is proposed to fuse priori degenerate data with site degraded data which can predict shelf life for the monolithic drug and new drugs Determining the distribution of model parameters based on prior information, fusion of field data to update parameters by Bayes On this basis, predict the shelf life of the monolithic drug The results show that the No5 loaded and bottled drugs’ shelf life predicted values are 4395 and 4747 weeks The relative errors are 0043 and 0051 And the feasibility of fusing degradation data to predict the shelf life of the monolithic drug and new drugs is verified

参考文献/References:

[1]胡颖廉 监管和市场:我国药品安全的现状、挑战及对策[J]. 中国卫生政策研究,2013(7):38
[2]林丽花 强化病区高危药品安全管理的效果观察[J]. 中国药物经济学,2016,11(8):191
[3]郭建英,孙永全,于晓洋 可靠性增长技术发展动态诠释[J]. 哈尔滨理工大学学报,2011,16(2):1
[4]朱显辉,师楠,田德文,等 PWM驱动电机可靠性研究发展及展望[J]. 哈尔滨理工大学学报, 2014,19(4):22
[5]胡姚刚,李辉,廖兴林,等 风电轴承性能退化建模及其实时剩余寿命预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2016,20(6):1643
[6]FREITAS M A,DE TOLEDO M LG,Colosimo E A Using Degradation Data to Assess Reliability:A Case Study on Train Wheel Degradation[J]. Quality and Reliability Engineering International,2009,25(5):607
[7]周月阁,叶雪荣,翟国富 基于性能退化和MonteCarlo仿真的系统性能可靠性评估[J]. 仪器仪表学报,2014(5):1185
[8]XU A,TANG Y Objective Bayesian Analysis for Linear Degradationmodels[J]. Communications in StatisticsTheory and Methods,2012,41(21):4034
[9]GEBRAEEL N Z,LAWLEY M A,Rong L,Jennifer K ResidualLife Distributions from Component Degradation Signals:A Bayesian Approach[J].IIE Transactions, 2005, 37(6): 543
[10]GEBRAEEL N Sesoryupdated Residual Life Distributions for Components with Exponential Degradation Patterns[J]. IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering,2006,3(4):382
[11]ELWANY A,GEBRAEEL NRealtime Estimation of Mean Remaining Life Using Sensorbased Degradation Models[J].Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering,2009,131(5):51
[12]KAISER K A,GEBRAEEL N Z Predictive Maintenance Management Using Sensor Degration Models[J].IEEE Transaction on Systems,Man and Cybernetics,Part A:Systems and Humans,2009,39(4):840
[13]CHEN N,TSUI KL Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Degration Signals:Revisited[J]. IIE Transactions,2013,45(9):939
[14]邱荣华, 巨孔亮, 董友耕,等 基于性能退化的小子样电主轴可靠性试验研究[J]. 中国机械工程, 2016, 27(20):2738
[15]晁代宏,马静,陈淑英 应用多元性能退化量评估光纤陀螺贮存的可靠性[J]. 光学精密工程,2011(1):35
[16]蔡忠义, 陈云翔, 张诤敏,等 基于比例失效率退化模型的可靠性评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37(8):1943
[17]王华伟,高军,吴海桥 基于Bayes模型平均的航空发动机可靠性分析[J]. 航空动力学报,2014(2):305
[18]彭宝华,周经伦,潘正强 Wiener过程性能退化产品可靠性评估的Bayes方法[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010(3): 543
[19]王笑琴 常温保存的药品存放于冷藏处对药效的影响[J]. 医疗装备,2016(18):112
[20]SHAO J and CHOW SC Constructing Release Targets for Drug Products:A Bayesian Decision Theory Approach[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1991,40(3):381

相似文献/References:

[1]孙永全,郭建英,陈洪科,等.AMSAA模型可靠性增长预测方法的改进[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2010,(05):49.
 SUN Yong-quan,GUO Jian-ying,CHEN Hong-ke,et al.An Improved Reliability Growth Prediction Algorithm Based on AMSAA Model[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2010,(01):49.
[2]滕志军,李晓霞,郑权龙,等.矿井巷道的MIMO信道几何模型及其信道容量分析[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2012,(02):14.
 TENG Zhi-jun,LI Xiao-xia,ZHENG Quan-long.Geometric Model for Mine MIMO Channels and Its Capacity Analysis[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2012,(01):14.
[3]李艳苹,张礼勇.新训练序列下的改进OFDM符号定时算法[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2012,(02):19.
 LI Yan-ping,ZHANG Li-yong.An Improved Algorithm of OFDM Symbol Timing Based on A New Training Sequence[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2012,(01):19.
[4]赵彦玲,车春雨,铉佳平,等.钢球全表面螺旋线展开机构运动特性分析[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):37.
 ZHAO Yan-ling,CHE Chun-yu,XUAN Jia-ping,et al.[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):37.
[5]李冬梅,卢旸,刘伟华,等.一类具有连续接种的自治SEIR传染病模型[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):73.
 LI Dong-mei,LU Yang,LIU Wei-hua.[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):73.
[6]华秀英,刘文德.奇Hamiltonian李超代数偶部的非负Z-齐次导子空间[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):76.
 HUA Xiu-ying,LIU Wen-de.[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):76.
[7]桂存兵,刘洋,何业军,等.基于LCC谐振电路阻抗匹配的光伏发电最大功率点跟踪[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):90.
 GUI Cun-bing,LIU Yong,HE Ye-jun.[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):90.
[8]翁凌,闫利文,夏乾善,等.PI/TiC@Al2O3复合薄膜的制备及其电性能研究[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(02):25.
 WENG Ling,YAN Li-wen,XIA Qian-shan.[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):25.
[9]姜彬,林爱琴,王松涛,等.高速铣刀安全性设计理论与方法[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(02):63.
 JIANG Bin,LIN Ai-qin,WANG Song-tao,et al.[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):63.
[10]李星纬,李晓东,张颖彧,等.EVOH 磺酸锂电池隔膜的制备及微观形貌[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(05):18.
 LI Xing- wei,LI Xiao- dong,ZHANG Ying- yu,et al.The Preparation and Microcosmic Morphology oEVOH- SO Li Lithium Ion Battery Septum[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,(01):18.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 基金项目:黑龙江省自然科学基金(F201305)
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-03-26